Red Sox in the Post-Season

(thru 2009 playoffs)

Josh Beckett‘s 4th QS during this post-season in 4 starts in 2007 got me to start to think about the Red Sox all-time post-season pitching records. So I hopped on Baseball-Reference.com for some research. Here goes:

All-Time Post Season

• in all, the Sox have played in 150 post-season games (20 appearances)
• the Sox have an all-time record of 78-71-1 (.523)
• starters in these games earned 85 QS in these 150 games (56.6%)
• of these 85 QS, the Sox won 57 of them and tied 1 (67.65% win percentage)
• so that means that the Sox have had 65 non-QS and have only won 32.3% of these games

At Fenway Park

• at Fenway Park, Sox hurlers have tossed 42 of these post-season QS and have a record of 29-12-1 in these games (70.2%)

World Series

• there have been a total of 45 Red Sox QS in their 66 World Series games (68.2%).
• the Sox have won 40 of the 66 games they have played in (61.4%) en route to 7 World Championships
• in 45 World Series QS, the Sox are 32-12-1 (72.2%)

ALCS Predictions

Well, we can only predict the first 4 games as probable starters have been announced for those four matchups.

Boston v. Cleveland

Game 1: Beckett (67%) v Sabathia (74%)- Advantage: Cleveland

Game 2: Schilling (58%) v Carmona (81%) – Advantage: Cleveland

Game 3: Matsuzaka (56%) v Westbrook (60%) – Advantage: Cleveland

Game 4: Wakefield (48%) v Byrd (48%) – Tossup

Well, the Sox certainly have their work cut out for them. Sabathia and Carmona are on the short lis, along with Beckett, for AL Cy Young. Both of them had quality starts in their only starts against the Sox this year as did Paul Byrd. Westbrook did not.

Sox starters Beckett and Schilling also had quality starts in their solo outing against the Tribe, Dice-K had one QS in two starts. Tim Wakefield did not face the Indians this season. He has only faced the Tribe twice in the last three seasons (1 QS).

So what should you expect in this series? Well, we are looking at the best two rotations in the AL this season, by ERA. Hitters working long counts to push up pitch counts so they can get to the bullpens early. The Sox have a bullpen advantage. The team that holds the lead after 5 innings will have a significant advantage in getting the win, nothing new, but really important in this series. Work the count, foul off some pitches, get the starter out of the game. Fortunately, for me, a Sox fan, I know that the Sox do this every single game.

QS Prediction: Cleveland in 6

NLCS Predictions

Well, we can only predict games 1, 2, and 3 as probable starters have been announced for those three matchups.

Arizona v. Colorado

Game 1: Webb (65%) v Francis (56%) – Advantage: Arizona

Game 2:  Davis (58%) v Ubaldo Jimenez (60%) – Tossup

Game 3:  Livian Hernandez (58%) v Morales (25%) – Advantage: Arizona

Based on QS %, I would expect the D-backs to be leading in the series after Game 3, either 2-1 or 3-0. I consider +/- 2% in QS % to be within the margin of error; hence the Game 2 pick ‘em.

If you are a big baseball fan – gotta love this series. Look at all of the young players who will play significant roles. Oh, to be a baseball fan out west…. look out Giants and Dodgers – the young men have gone West, to Denver and Phoenix.

Division Series Quality Starts

It is Division Series Monday – and 3 of the 4 series are over, sweeps. Boy, that was fast. Thanks for playing Phillies, Cubs, and Angels. Let’s take a look at the QS counts and results in the 12 games played so far.

D-backs v. Cubs

Game 1: Webb and Zambrano both notch QS. Lou Pinella, you cannot manage Game 1 to win Game 3. You have to win Game 1 and worry about Game 3 later.

Game 2: Lilly struggles through only 3 innings. Davis goes 5, allowing 4 earned runs. No QS.

Game 3: Rich Hill, also gone after 3 IP. Livian Hernandez tosses a QS, surrendering only 1 ER in 6 IP.

Results: D’backs win both of their quality starts, the Cubs lose in Big Z’s QS and get swept.

Prediction: by team QS% and by individual matchup QS % – Arizona

Rockies v. Phils

Game 1: Francis and Hamel both reach the quality start barrier. Hamel has a really bad 2nd inning, allowing 3 runs, and the Rockies take game 1.

Game 2: Morales v. Kendrick. Who? Exactly. No QS here.

Game 3: The elder statesman Jamie Moyer faces rookie Ubaldo Jimenez and both made quality starts. Both allowed only 1 earned run; Moyer thru 6 innings, Ubaldo got one out in the 7th.

Result: Again, 2 quality start wins by the broom-carrying Rockies. Phillies can finish off the 2 quality starts by their lefties Hamel and Moyer.

Prediction: by team QS% – Colorado; by individual matchup QS % -Philly

Tribe v. NYY (CLE leads 2-1)

Game 1: Cy Young contenders, Sabathia and Wang, match up, but neither make it through 6 innings as the lineups worked up the pitch counts very effectively.

Game 2: Carmona v. Petite. The rook v. the lefty vet, a la game 3 of the Phils/Rockies series. Carmona was brilliant, lasting 9 innings, allowing only 1, in the 11-inning battle. Petitte was able to retire 19 Tribesmen and allowed only 1 earned run. So, two quality starts here lead to an extra inning game that the Tribe win to take a 2-0 lead.

Game 3: Clemens knocked out in the 3rd with a reactivated hamstring injury. Westbrook struggled mightly, especially against Damon. No QS here.

Results (so far): 1 QS for each team – the Tribe won theirs.

Prediction: by team QS% and by individual matchup QS % – Cleveland

RED SOX v. Angels

Game 1: Beckett’s 3rd complete game shutout in the postseason. That is a quality start! Lackey, not so much – 4 ER in 6 IP.

Game 2: Escobar (5 IP) and Matsuzaka (4 2/3 IP) allowed 3 ER. No QS here. This game will be remembered for Manny’s late game magic, but let’s not forget the 4 1/3 scoreless innings by Mssrs. Lopez, Delcarmen, Okajima, and Papelbon that gave the Sox the opportunity to win it in the bottom of nine.

Game 3: Jared Weaver gave up two solo shots in 5 innings before being pulled. Schilling’s transformation from power to finesse pitcher continues (or is it complete?) with 7 scoreless innings.

Results: 2 quality starts for the Sox = 2 wins.

Prediction: by team QS% and by individual matchup QS % – Anaheim

Overall – teams that have received quality starts from their starters are a collective 7-4 in the divisional series thru 12 games. In the 4 losses, the opposing hurler also threw a QS. So that means that in the 3 games where only 1 team had a quality start, they won. We always here from managers “It all starts with starting pitching”. Well, it is only 1 round, but we are seeing it so far.

And the predictive tool (QS%)  is having mixed results. QS% expected Arizona to win, and was split on the Rockies (team QS%) and Phillies (in a close one, by individual probable pitching matchups). It failed in predicting the Sox over the Angels – especially in a sweep. And QS% is holding up in the Tribe/NYY series – lets see if Game 4 goes to NYY as predicted tonight?

ALDS Game 3: Schilling = Mr. Playoffs. Sox Sweep!

Showing that he can still command the strike zone and keep batters of balance, Curt Schilling tossed another playoff quality start. It is nothing new for Schill. Since his first postseason start in 1993 with the Phillies, Schilling has taken the hill for his club 16 times and he has come up with quality starts 14 times! Talk about a big game pitcher – they don’t come any bigger than Big Schill. His career postseason ERA is 1.93 and his record is 9-2.

He is 9-0 when he tosses a quality start – that is the conversion rate you desire. His teams are 14-2 when Schill has a QS. It should not be a surprise – playoff teams, by their nature, are good clubs, and they should win quality starts at a higher rate than league average, even against good opponents. Good teams win a very high percentage of games when they have a lead after 6 innings – that is where a quality start takes you. It should be no surprise that Schilling’s two losses in the postseason came in non-quality starts. They are also the only 2 games his team.

ALDS ’07: Sox 3 – Halos 0. 2 QS for the Sox – none for the Halos. Sox sweep and will take on the winner of the Tribe/NYY series.

ALDS Game 2: Dice-K done after 4.2 IP; Sox win!

In his first MLB postseason start, Daisuke Matsuzaka did not get to the quality start barrier, going only 4 2/3 innings against the Halos in Game 2 of the ALDS for the Red Sox. He allowed 3 runs on seven hits, but kept the ball in the ballpark and his team in the game. An excellent performance from the bullpen and Manny’s monumental homer in the ninth won the game for the Sox. Still waiting for that homer to land.

ALDS ‘07: Sox 2 – Halos 0