Back for more

For a number of reasons, I put this blog on hold for a while, like the entire 2009 season and the first 4 months of 2010. But today, July 29th, 2010, I feel like starting back up again. Welcome to “The Quality Starts Report, The 2nd Generation”.

What to do now? Well, lets take a snapshot of the league leaders in Quality Starts (QS).

Individual Leaders thru July 28:

1. Josh Johnson, FLA – 19 QS in 21 starts
2. Adam Wainwright, STL and Felix Hernandez, SEA – 18 QS in 22 starts
3. CC Sabathia, NYY; Tim Hudson, ATL; Roy Halladay, PHI; Jared Weaver, LAA – 17 QS each

Impressive list. Josh Johnson has been lights out all season, with a 1.72 ERA.

Team Leaders thru July 28:

1. Chicago Cubs 63
2. St. Louis Cardinals 62
3. San Francisco Giants 62
4. Tampa Bay Rays 62
5. Chicago White Sox and Oakland A’s 61

The Rays and White Sox are both playoff contenders in the AL, while St. Louis is tied for the lead in the Central and the Giants are in front of the NL Wild Card race.

The NYY are tied for 9th with 58 QS and have the league’s best record. The three worst teams in the league, Washington, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore, are all at the bottom of the list with 43.

What about the Red Sox? Tied for 9th overall in the league in total QS. Six starters have recorded quality starts this season.

• John Lackey (14 QS in 21 starts)
• Jon Lester (13 QS in 20)
• Clay Buchholz (10 QS in 17)
• Tim Wakefield (9 QS in 16)
• Daisuke Matsuzaka (8 QS in 14)
• Josh Beckett (4 QS in 10)

Felix Doubront (3 starts) and Scott Atchison (1 start) did not reach the quality start level.

Last Game: #102

Josh Beckett threw 7 innings, allowing only 3 earned runs, in his second start back from the disabled list. This was his first QS since April 26th.

So, hey, that is where we are right now…. good, maybe even, a quality start to the re-launch of the site.

And down the stretch we come

Tonight will be the 456th consecutive regular season game the Red Sox have sold out, breaking the previous record of 455 held by the Cleveland Indians. I was at #455, when the Sox bunted their way to victory over the O’s. Here is the Quality Start Report look at where we are with only 20 games left in the season.

The Sox v. Rays series starts tonight. Sox trail by only 1.5 games in the AL East. Interesting, the teams are tied with 73 quality starts on the season to date (note: Rays have played one fewer game).

• Game 1 – Edwin Jackson (13 QS, 48% of starts) v. Jon Lester (17 QS, 59%). Advantage: Sox
• Game 2 – Scott Kazmir (11 QS, 48%) v. DiceK (13 QS, 52%). Advantage: Sox
• Game 3- Andy Sonnestine (10 QS, 36%) v. Josh Beckett (14 QS, 54%). Advantage: Sox

Jon Lester faces Edwin Jackson at the start of the critical series at Fenway tonight!

The winner of this series will be the one that gets the best starting pitching. Coming in, the Red Sox look to have the advantage and the momentum. The Sox are fortunate to miss James Shields, who has 20 quality starts (69%), the best number on both staffs.

Head-to-head in 2008, the Sox and Rays have split 12 games, with the home team winning every single game. The Sox have had 7 quality starts in 12 games, the Rays only 4. The Rays have won each game with a quality start, including beating the Sox 3 times when the Sox’ starter has gotten a quality start. The Rays have not gotten a single quality start in six games at Fenway (3 by the Sox).

In addition to this series at Fenway, the Sox and Rays will face off next week for 3 more at the Trop. Here is a look at the remaining games on the schedule for each team:

• Rays (21): home – Bos (3), Min (4). away – Bos (3), NYY (3), Bal (4), Det (4)
• Sox (20): home – Rays (3), Tor (4), Cle (4), NYY (3). away – Rays (3), Tor (3)

Analysis – The Sox have struggled with at the Trop (0-6) and against Toronto (4-7) all season long. So, this combination of 10 games, half of those remaining, is ominous. The Rays have struggled at Fenway (0-6) and against the NYY (6-9), but have dominated the Orioles (11-3) and Detroit (3-0). While past performance may not be indicative of future results, it would seem that the Rays have a more favorable schedule than the Sox as both clubs are battling it out for the AL East crown. The advantage goes to either team that gets to 4 wins in the last 6 between the 2 clubs.

Personally, I am looking forward to tonight at the Fens with personal favorite Lester taking the ball for the Sox and . Both Lester and the Rays starter Edwin Jackson have 4 quality starts in his last 5 starts.

At the All-Star Break

Sorry about the lack of daily coverage lately. Life has been a little hectic and has thrown some surprises my way recently. The least significant of these surprises is the galactic failure of my television to function. That makes watching games a little tricky. Any how – here is how the Sox look at the All-Star break.

The Sox are 57-40 overall, in 1st place in the AL East by a half game over the Rays, courtesy of last night’s win over the Orioles. On the hill, the starting pitching has done well, posting 53 QS and winning 35 of them. The Sox are 22-22 in games in which a starter does not throw a quality start.

Opponents have hurled 42 QS against the Sox, going 26-16 in these starts. If you do the math, that means the Sox are 41-14 when the opponent’s starting pitcher does not go quality. That right there, my friend is some statistical information for you. Looking a little deeper, when the Sox and their opposition each have starters who go quality, the Sox have struggled, going only 12-16. When the Sox have a QS and their foes do not, they are 23-2! When neither starter has a quality start, the Sox are 18-12.

Lesson here: when the Sox get some quality, and the opponents don’t, the Sox win. If neither gets quality, the Sox do pretty well.

Mid-season individual performances

Beckett 17 GS – 11 QS
Buchholz 9 – 3
Colon 6 -2
Lester 20 – 11
Masterson 9 – 5
Matsuzaka 16 – 7
Pauley 1 – 0
Wakefield 19 – 14

Beckett, Lester and Wakefield have performed well, all with over 50% of their starts being QS. Wake is among the league leaders in the category. Dice-K has a great record, and the Sox are 13-3 in his 16 starts, but only 7 QS to his credit. I worry about him burning out in the fall because of too many pitches and too many hard innings. Masterson has been a surprise, 5 QS in 9 starts and has been a boost to the club. Colon has been adequate (2 QS in 6 starts). Clay Buchholz has also been somewhat of a disappointment. All the talent in the world, we keep hearing, but he has not had enough quality starts to really show us that he has it figured out yet.

’08 Games 44, 45, and 46: A Sweep of the Brew Crew

The weekend return of an old American League foe to Fenway was good for the Sox. The Brewers got swept out of town by the Sox, thanks in most part to a lineup that beat up Brewers pitching for 23 runs in the 3 game set. Only DiceK in Game 1 of the Saturday twinbill was able to hit the quality start barrier. Wakefield feel short on innings, and Beckett decided it was ‘all-or-nothing’ day on Sunday, giving up 6 runs in most part from 4 dingers and whiffing 9 batters over 7 innings. So what did we learn – more of the same from DiceK, Wakefield continues to be adequate most times out, and Beckett is having some struggles (9 HR allowed in 54 innings pitched over 8 starts in 2008). Time to be concerned yet? No, but lately he is looking more like 2006 Beckett than 2007 Beckett.

Here’s the QS Bottom-Line:

Game 44	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	PC-ST	ERA
DM #18	6.7	7	2	0	2	6	1	103-66	2.15

Game 45	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	PC-ST	ERA
TW #49	5.1	6	3	3	3	5	1	10/-67	4.33

Game 46	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	PC-ST	ERA
JB #19	7.0	6	6	6	1	9	4	107-75	4.67

The End Result:

The Sox are done with inter-league play for a little while now and are back in a virtual tie at the top of the division with the Rays. While it is nice to see the bats going again, and hopefully that will continue, the starting pitching has become inconsistent again (only 4 quality starts in the last 10 games).

Red Sox Record:	27-19
Total Quality Starts:	23
Record in QS games:	15-8

A Look Ahead:

Jon Lester, Justin Masterson, and Bartolo Colon are scheduled for the Sox as the Kansas City Royals come to Boston for their annual visit. Lester leads the team in starts, and is tied with DiceK and Wakefield in quality starts (5). Masterson will make his second start and Colon his first start of the season for the Sox, due to Buchholz’ injury and the Friday rainout. We’ll see if the sputtering Royals can get to the Sox staff or if the quality start train can get rolling again.

’08 Game 29: Another Walk-off Win

I forgot to mention in yesterday’s post that JL #31′s quality start was the fifth in five games for the Sox. Finally, some consistency comes to the rotation at the end of April. Dice-K upped the streak to 6 and helped the Sox finish the month of April with a 16-8 record. Dice-K, stratched from his last start because of the flu, looked strong in this one. He tossed seven innings, giving up only 2 hits and 2 walks, and no runs. This last number was pretty important, as again the Sox offense sputtered.

Game 29	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	PC-ST	ERA
DM #18	7.0	2	0	0	2	4	0	111-69	2.52

The End Result:
Quality start for Dice-K, and one for McGowan of the Jays as well. This is the 13th quality start thrown by an opposing pitcher this year, and the 5th in the last 6 games. The Sox bats are not lengthening at bats, being patient, and getting starters out of games early. That has been the formula, and they are just not executing in the batters box lately. The saving grace for the Sox has been the starters in the last turn of the rotation. Masterson, Wakefield, Buchholz, Beckett, Lester, and Dice-K have each hit the quality start barrier in the past week.

Red Sox Record:	17-12
Total Quality Starts:	16
Record in QS games:	10-6

A Look Ahead:

The Sox go for the sweep with Wakefield on the bump tonight. Can Wakefield get the QS streak to 7? Can the Sox bats solve Aj Burnett? Good questions. First game of May – tonight at Fenway, 7:05 PM first pitch.

’08 Games 25-27: Sox dropped at the Trop

Well, this past weekend in Tampa was certainly an unique one for the Boston Red Sox. Three quality starts and three losses. Ouch! On the back of losing the last 2 at home to the Halos, the Sox have now lost five in a row. They were 15-7 at the start of this stretch, now only 15-12 and are in a three-way tie for first place in the AL East. When you toss 3 quality starts in a series and get swept, you gotta look at the offense and the bullpen for some answers. At great issue this weekend was the lineup, generating only 5 runs in the 3 games. Yikes! Give credit to the Rays starters, who also collected 2 quality starts, for getting the job done. Only Matt Garza of the six starters in the sweep did not get a quality start, falling one inning short of the definition.

My thoughts, lets put this quick trip to Tampa behind us as quickly as possible and look ahead to the chance for redemption next weekend back in the Fens.

Here’s the QS Bottom-Line:

Game 25	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	PC-ST	ERA
TW #49	6.0	6	4	3	5	1	0	113-70	4.06

Game 26	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	PC-ST	ERA
CB #61	8.0	3	2	2	2	9	1	113-76	4.08

Game 27	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	PC-ST	ERA
JB #19	7.0	4	2	1	1	13	1	107-70	4.10

The End Result:
Sox have now dropped 5 in a row, despite 4 straight quality starts. So much for the quality starts equals wins theory. If the offense can get going soon while the pitching is going good, that would help. Hello, lineup? Where are you?

That being said, I like what I saw from Buchholz and Beckett. Definitely this was Buchholz’s best outing this season, eight strong innings, although you’d have to wish he’d get one pitch back, the one that Iwamura deposited into the bleachers. That was the ballgame on Saturday night. Beckett just got outhurled by the Rays’ ace James Shields.

Red Sox Record:	15-12
Total Quality Starts:	14
Record in QS games:	8-6

A Look Ahead:

The Sox return home to face the Blue Jays and the Rays this coming week. Good news that they are at home, as the Sox have already been swept in 2 series against the Jays/Rays on the road. Going in to the homestand, the Sox have a season-long streak of 4 straight quality starts.