Category Archives: Curt Schilling
Starting off the 2008 Season
The TQR (The Quality Start Report) is back for a second season with a vengeance. The goal this year is to give a game-by-game review of the starters performance and keep track of the Sox’ QS in a meaningful way. I will soon add some lost posts from the 2007 post-season run by the team and how the Quality Starts by the starting four (Beckett, Dice-K, Schilling, and Lester) launched them to the World Series Championship.
Looking forward to sharing an exciting, quality start filled 2008 with you.
ALCS Predictions
Well, we can only predict the first 4 games as probable starters have been announced for those four matchups.
Boston v. Cleveland
Game 1: Beckett (67%) v Sabathia (74%)- Advantage: Cleveland
Game 2: Schilling (58%) v Carmona (81%) – Advantage: Cleveland
Game 3: Matsuzaka (56%) v Westbrook (60%) – Advantage: Cleveland
Game 4: Wakefield (48%) v Byrd (48%) – Tossup
Well, the Sox certainly have their work cut out for them. Sabathia and Carmona are on the short lis, along with Beckett, for AL Cy Young. Both of them had quality starts in their only starts against the Sox this year as did Paul Byrd. Westbrook did not.
Sox starters Beckett and Schilling also had quality starts in their solo outing against the Tribe, Dice-K had one QS in two starts. Tim Wakefield did not face the Indians this season. He has only faced the Tribe twice in the last three seasons (1 QS).
So what should you expect in this series? Well, we are looking at the best two rotations in the AL this season, by ERA. Hitters working long counts to push up pitch counts so they can get to the bullpens early. The Sox have a bullpen advantage. The team that holds the lead after 5 innings will have a significant advantage in getting the win, nothing new, but really important in this series. Work the count, foul off some pitches, get the starter out of the game. Fortunately, for me, a Sox fan, I know that the Sox do this every single game.
QS Prediction: Cleveland in 6
Division Series Quality Starts
It is Division Series Monday – and 3 of the 4 series are over, sweeps. Boy, that was fast. Thanks for playing Phillies, Cubs, and Angels. Let’s take a look at the QS counts and results in the 12 games played so far.
D-backs v. Cubs
Game 1: Webb and Zambrano both notch QS. Lou Pinella, you cannot manage Game 1 to win Game 3. You have to win Game 1 and worry about Game 3 later.
Game 2: Lilly struggles through only 3 innings. Davis goes 5, allowing 4 earned runs. No QS.
Game 3: Rich Hill, also gone after 3 IP. Livian Hernandez tosses a QS, surrendering only 1 ER in 6 IP.
Results: D’backs win both of their quality starts, the Cubs lose in Big Z’s QS and get swept.
Prediction: by team QS% and by individual matchup QS % – Arizona
Rockies v. Phils
Game 1: Francis and Hamel both reach the quality start barrier. Hamel has a really bad 2nd inning, allowing 3 runs, and the Rockies take game 1.
Game 2: Morales v. Kendrick. Who? Exactly. No QS here.
Game 3: The elder statesman Jamie Moyer faces rookie Ubaldo Jimenez and both made quality starts. Both allowed only 1 earned run; Moyer thru 6 innings, Ubaldo got one out in the 7th.
Result: Again, 2 quality start wins by the broom-carrying Rockies. Phillies can finish off the 2 quality starts by their lefties Hamel and Moyer.
Prediction: by team QS% – Colorado; by individual matchup QS % -Philly
Tribe v. NYY (CLE leads 2-1)
Game 1: Cy Young contenders, Sabathia and Wang, match up, but neither make it through 6 innings as the lineups worked up the pitch counts very effectively.
Game 2: Carmona v. Petite. The rook v. the lefty vet, a la game 3 of the Phils/Rockies series. Carmona was brilliant, lasting 9 innings, allowing only 1, in the 11-inning battle. Petitte was able to retire 19 Tribesmen and allowed only 1 earned run. So, two quality starts here lead to an extra inning game that the Tribe win to take a 2-0 lead.
Game 3: Clemens knocked out in the 3rd with a reactivated hamstring injury. Westbrook struggled mightly, especially against Damon. No QS here.
Results (so far): 1 QS for each team – the Tribe won theirs.
Prediction: by team QS% and by individual matchup QS % – Cleveland
RED SOX v. Angels
Game 1: Beckett’s 3rd complete game shutout in the postseason. That is a quality start! Lackey, not so much – 4 ER in 6 IP.
Game 2: Escobar (5 IP) and Matsuzaka (4 2/3 IP) allowed 3 ER. No QS here. This game will be remembered for Manny’s late game magic, but let’s not forget the 4 1/3 scoreless innings by Mssrs. Lopez, Delcarmen, Okajima, and Papelbon that gave the Sox the opportunity to win it in the bottom of nine.
Game 3: Jared Weaver gave up two solo shots in 5 innings before being pulled. Schilling’s transformation from power to finesse pitcher continues (or is it complete?) with 7 scoreless innings.
Results: 2 quality starts for the Sox = 2 wins.
Prediction: by team QS% and by individual matchup QS % – Anaheim
Overall – teams that have received quality starts from their starters are a collective 7-4 in the divisional series thru 12 games. In the 4 losses, the opposing hurler also threw a QS. So that means that in the 3 games where only 1 team had a quality start, they won. We always here from managers “It all starts with starting pitching”. Well, it is only 1 round, but we are seeing it so far.
And the predictive tool (QS%) is having mixed results. QS% expected Arizona to win, and was split on the Rockies (team QS%) and Phillies (in a close one, by individual probable pitching matchups). It failed in predicting the Sox over the Angels – especially in a sweep. And QS% is holding up in the Tribe/NYY series – lets see if Game 4 goes to NYY as predicted tonight?
ALDS Game 3: Schilling = Mr. Playoffs. Sox Sweep!
Showing that he can still command the strike zone and keep batters of balance, Curt Schilling tossed another playoff quality start. It is nothing new for Schill. Since his first postseason start in 1993 with the Phillies, Schilling has taken the hill for his club 16 times and he has come up with quality starts 14 times! Talk about a big game pitcher – they don’t come any bigger than Big Schill. His career postseason ERA is 1.93 and his record is 9-2.
He is 9-0 when he tosses a quality start – that is the conversion rate you desire. His teams are 14-2 when Schill has a QS. It should not be a surprise – playoff teams, by their nature, are good clubs, and they should win quality starts at a higher rate than league average, even against good opponents. Good teams win a very high percentage of games when they have a lead after 6 innings – that is where a quality start takes you. It should be no surprise that Schilling’s two losses in the postseason came in non-quality starts. They are also the only 2 games his team.
ALDS ’07: Sox 3 – Halos 0. 2 QS for the Sox – none for the Halos. Sox sweep and will take on the winner of the Tribe/NYY series.
Division Series Predictions
Based on quality start percentage and expected matchups at this point. It all starts tonight (on TBS – where did that come from?).
CLE v. NYY:
Game 1 – Sabathia (74%) v. Wang (67%)
Game 2 – Carmona (81%) v. Pettitte (65%)
Game 3 – Westbrook (60%) v. Clemens (59%)
Game 4 (if necessary) Byrd (48%) v. Wang (67%)
Game 5 (if neccessary) Sabathia v. Pettitte
Series prediction – Games 1 & 2 should go to the Tribe. Game 3 is a pick ‘em. If the NYY can get past game 3, they will set up a game 5 matchup of the lefties – Sabathia and Pettitte. TRIBE in 5.
COL v. PHI
Game 1: Francis (56%) v. Hamels (57%)
Game 2: Morales (25%) v. Kendrick (65%)
Game 3: Ubaldo Jimenez (60%) v. Jamie Moyer (55%)
Game 4: Not really sure who would start – maybe Fogg (41%) v. Lohse (47%). The game 1 guys would both be on only 3 days rest for this one.
Game 5: Probably same as game 1 matchup.
Series prediction: This series is very close, predicting with QS % is hard. Game 1 is a tossup, Game 2 should go to Philly, Game 3 to the Rockies. So it will all come down to Game 4 – who starts? That depends on who is leading and which manager has the guts to go with his ace on short rest. If we go with Fogg v. Lohse (boring!), the the Phils will win the series – as I would expect Lohse to beat Fogg and Hamels to get Francis one of the two possible times). Philly in 4 or 5.
ARI v. CHI
Game 1: Webb (65%) v. Zambrano (53%)
Game 2: Davis (58%) v. Lilly (59%)
Game 3: L. Hernandez (58%) v. R. Hill (53%)
Game 4: Owings (52%) v. Zambrano
Game 5: Webb v. ???
Series Prediction: I am not convinced, based on these numbers, that the Cubbies will get to a game 5. If the Davis v. Lilly matchup goes to the home team, then Arizona will sweep. If not, then the Cubbies will try to win a second tossup game in the series, and I just don’t think they can do it. And, to top it all off, if they do win both of the tossups, then they have Webb v. Lilly or Marquis (45%) in game 5. I predict that the D-backs win this series!
BOS v. ANA
Game 1: Beckett (67%) v. Lackey(73%)
Game 2: Matsuzaka (56%) v. Escobar (67%)
Game 3: Schilling (58%) v. Jared Weaver (57%)
Games 4 and 5 would be a repeat of the matchups from games 1 & 2 with regular rest for the starters.
Series prediction: This is the QS % prediction, not my personal prediction. QS% would suggest that the Sox are in trouble in this series, as Games 1 & 2 should go to Anaheim and Game 3 is a tossup. Angels in 4.
MY Prediction: Beckett is a big game pitcher and Lackey has struggled this year against the Sox. Dice-K was excellent in his last start and looks to continue. Schilling is also a big-game pitcher, andother pitchers in Jared Weaver’s family have wilted in the playoffs. Sox will dominate this series and win in a sweep.
Recap of QS% Predictions:
AL – TRIBE in 5 and Anaheim in 4.
NL – Philly in 4 or 5 and D-backs advance.
