Singing a song today

Get the tune for the Rolling Stone’s ‘Generation” stuck in your head.

“Are you ready for my generation

Taking about my generation”

Now switch the word ‘generation’ to ‘arbitration’!

You are in my head now. Talking about some arbitration, baby!

Pedro, DLowe, Tek, and OC all get arbitration today. Anything less than that would be a huge surprise. The good thing about this…..that means if they are to be signed by the Sox, it’ll be done by January 8th or not at all. That is nice. Finally, some movement.

Arbitration, baby…..

Today’s Pair of Sox-istics (11/17/04)

Let’s talk Manny Ortez and Carl Schilling…..I mean Papi Ramirez and Curt Pavano….errr. Papi and Manny and Curt and Carl.

Pair of Sox-istic #1: MV-Sox

The writers have spoken and selected Vlad Guerrero as the AL MVP for 2004. Great choice. That guy is awesome and he single-handedly put the Angels in the playoffs with his September performance. A Pair of Sox Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz came in 3rd and 4th respectively in the AL MVP voting.

For most of the season, Papi batted 3rd in the lineup and Manny hit 4th. Remember that? Do you remember that Papi was suspended for the first five days of August for his bat-throwing tirade? When good ol’ Big Papi came back from his hiatus, Tito Francona made an adjustment in the batting order, shifting Manny to 3rd and Papi to the cleanup spot. The results were very interesting.

Before the suspension, thru the end of July, the Sox record was 56-46. Then the trade. Five days later, they were 58-49 and getting Big Papi back. So nine games above .500. Starting on Saturday, August 7th, in Detroit, Ortiz was in the cleanup spot and Manny missed the next few games with the flu. When he returned on August 10th, Manny was put in the 3rd spot. What happened for the Sox starting on August 7th? They went 40-15 for the rest of the regular season and another 11-3 in the post-season. In total, 51-18, 33 games above .500. That is some improvement after that little switch.

Well, I don’t give all the credit for the Sox improvement to this little switch. There was the addition of OC, Mientkiewicz, and Roberts, Trot and Mueller getting healthy, and Wakefield and DLowe settling into the rotation. But 51-18 after playing .500 ball from mid-May until the end of the first week of August. So, I would argue that the Manny Ortez (thanks Senator Kerry) switch should be in the category of the additions, the health, and the pitching.

BUT….

perhaps I speak to soon. Further analysis of the Manny Ortez numbers gives you something very perplexing to think about. Pre-Aug. 7, the combined OPS for the Pair was 1.012. Post-Aug.7, their combined OPS went DOWN to .965. But the offense still improved after Aug. 7, improving from 5.55 runs/game to 6.45 runs/game. Not all due to this lineup switch, as the OPS number shows, but it must have been a piece of the puzzle. Putting Manny before Ortiz, then either Varitek or Millar in the five-spot made it very difficult for opposing bullpens to matchup later in the games. I can’t really find an answer to correlate the switch with the improvement, but it certainly is a unique coincidence, isn’t it. If you can figure it out….please let me know (email)

Pair of Sox-istic #2: Going to Dinner

A Pair of one-time Sox farmhands will be having a little chat about what it is like to pitch for the home team off of the Fenway mound. Recovering Curt Schilling will be giving free agent (and former Pedro trade bait) Carl Pavano the 411 on being a Sox starter. Ironically, it was Schilling who opposed Pavano in the latter’s MLB debut.

How sweet would it be to see these two join Pedro at the top of the rotation?

Pavano’s emergence in 2004 may be a one-year wonder, that is the concern. But with Schilling to mentor and an excellent lineup to score runs behind him, I anticipate Pavano would be a stud in the Sox rotation. A $3 year, $24 million contract with a 4th year option for $10 million would be a cash grab for Pavano and a sound investment for the Sox. If you add $8 million for CP and $12.5 million for Pedro, you still come up with less payroll than the Pedro/Lowe combo of $22.5 million in 2004. How would you like to improve your rotation and spend less money on it than you did the year you won the World Championship? Sounds good to me.

WWTD — What Will Theo Do? (11/11/04)

Time is up….Last day for exclusive negotiating with the FAs.

TE – what have you done lately?

• offered Pedro a reasonable contract
• listened to $cott Bora$ run his mouth and ask you to overpay for Varitek
• met with OC’s agent
• stumped for Kerry
• ignored DLowe
• sweated out Curt Schilling’s ankle surgery….let’s hope all is well.
• talked with Carl Pavano’s agent and kept an eye on Brad Radke of the Twins.
• picked up Billy Traber, lefty starter formerly of the Tribe, off the waiver wire. This may be a nice little pickup down the road if Traber can bounce back from his Tommy John surgery of September 2003. Traber is now on the 40-man roster, so he’ll be in Spring Training. My guess is that he will have a chance to earn the 5th spot in the starting rotation if he is healthy enough.
• got news that Manny was coming home from Japan with a sore hammy.
• earlier this afternoon got the news that Schilling took 2nd and Pedro took 4th in the AL Cy Young balloting for 2004.

What Will Theo Do This Week?

RS9 expects TE to be agressive and go after pitching and a shortstop right away. He probably already knows if OC is a possibility or not. Expect a quick move to grab Larkin or a push on Renteria if OC is not in the mix. Even if Pedro is back, I fully anticipate a strong push for Pavano or Radke. More pitching = more wins. Have we not learned that in the last year? How does Curt, Pedro, Pavano/Radke, Arroyo, Wakefield look? Another option is Jon Leiber, who proved to RS9 , that he can handle the big pressure games. Some other folks are throwing David Wells name out there for the Sox……no way he comes to pitch in Fenway.

That might be a little too much salary just in pitching, and you would have to say good-bye to Varitek. Varitek’s deal with any team is going to take a while. The alternatives are all defensive-minded (Matheny or Damian Miller) or a trade for Jason Kendall. Matheny would be the man RS9 backs as the next catcher if it comes to that.

I don’t see TE making any offer to Carlos Beltran. It is not a need area and will only distract him and his staff from the objectives (which are pitching, SS, and catcher). Bora$ will drive the market up for Beltran anyways. The NYH will pay big for him, no worries.

Also, in play might be a move on 3B Troy Glaus, especially if Varitek is gone. The loss of offense from behind the plate could be replaced by picking up some slack at another position. A move like this also might signal some trade talks, especially with Youkilis. The most reasonable target would be Oakland and one of the Big Three.

Isn’t this Hot Stove stuff fun? Five months until the home opener on April 11 vs. NYH. The key number to remember is $30 million…that is how much TE has to spend to fill out the rest of the 2005 club, still needing 2 starters, 2/3 relievers, a catcher, a shortstop, and a few bench guys. That’s the story.

Today’s Pair of Sox-istic (11/10/04)

Two weeks ago today, it finally happened. Today’s first Pair looks at the final play of the World Series sweep. The second Pair took a little research, but will give you a look at the teammates who made the last play in the 1918 World Series.

Pair of Sox-istic #1: 2004 Final-ly Play

It was a simple 1-3 executed by Pair of Sox Foulke (#29 ) to Mientkiewicz (#13). The last play of the 2004 World Series on October 27…..this simple 1-3 grounder by 1997 World Series hero Edgar Renteria (#3) will live in our memories forever….and very shortly on DVD. Sox sweep the Cards, keyed by great starting pitching by Curt, Pedro, and DLowe and early run support. Final play partners Keith Foulke and Doug Mientkiewicz were not on the Sox club that added the last chapter to the long list of late/post-season failures.

Pair of Sox-istic #2: 1918 Final Play

The 1918 World Series also ended on a routine 4-3 ground ball. The Pair of Sox interestingly enough were two Massachusetts natives. Sox second baseman Dave Shean, born in Arlington, MA, fielded the ball hit by Cubs LF Les Mann, and threw to Stuffy McInnis, born in Gloucester. This grounder, the result of a pitch by Carl Mays, gave the franchise their 5th championship in 15 years. The Red Sox did not start putting numbers on the uniforms until 1931. The LF for the Sox in the final two innings was none other than Babe Ruth.

The ’18 series was Shean’s only trip to the series and that campaign was his last full-year in the major leagues. McInnis had a long career (1909-27), playing with the first great Connie Mack Philadelphia A’s teams, then . He played in 5 World Series in his 19-year career, and won four times, including the ’18 series with the Sox.

Some More 1918/2004 Info:

Carl Mays helped lead the Sox to their fifth World Championship back in the war-shortened season of 1918. On Sept. 11, Mays hurled his second complete game of the series, winning a close 2-1 Game 6 over the Chicago Cubs. In two games in that series, Mays pitched 18 innings in games 3 and 6, allowing 10 hits and only 2 runs.

3 Facts about the #3:

1. On Sept. 11, 1918, Babe Ruth on the field for the final play of the final game, Game 6, as the Sox beat the Cubs for the World Championship 4 games to 2. …..in left field. He came on as a defensive replacement in the 8th inning for George Whiteman. Ruth later wore the #3 for the Yankees, but never wore a number on this back for the Sox.
2. #3 Pokey Reese, the Sox energetic 2B/SS, came on to run for Mark Bellhorn in the eigth inning, and then played second base in the final inning of the game in Game 4 of the World Series as the Sox swept the Cardinals 4-0.
3. The last #3 before Reese for the Sox…..Grady Little.

Tomorrow’s WWTD (What Will Theo Do?) will be a good one, so check back…oh, by the way…Happy RS9 Birthday Wishes to former Sox Bob Stanley, Jack Clark, Gene Conley, and the one and only Butch Huskey.

WWTD — What Will Theo Do? (11/4/04)

Well, only 7 days remain in this exclusive free agent signing period, where the Sox have negotiating rights with their Free Agents…..to help lighten the mood, check out another great Get Fuzzy (Sox-related).

Let’s take stock of the overall situation. Including the 3 arbitration-eligible players (Arroyo, Roberts, and Bellhorn), the Sox have 17 major-leaguers signed for 2005. Before arbitration, these contracts mean $88 million out of the proposed $120-$125 million budget that J$H has given TE. For the sake of argument, we’ll say that Theo has $30 million left to spend on the 2005 team.

What does TE need to add to the roster with this $30 million? 2 catchers, 2 starters, a shortstop, some bullpen help, and some bench players (assuming that Robert is back as a reserve outfielder and Bellhorn could return to second).

Now the question of the week: WWTD regarding the Free Agents:

1. Big Push to Re-Sign Jason Varitek….he is the heart of the team! We estimate that it will take 4 years/$35 million minimum to return the 32-year old backstop. With NYH in the mix for ‘Tek, a look at the alternatives (Mirabelli/Shoppack, Damian Miller) makes RS9 think that this is going to be expensive!

2. Pitching Pitching Pitching. TE has to worry about 2 rotation spots and some (less critical) bullpen spots. Expect a 2-yr./$25 million deal with some options pitched to Pedro. We think that the Sox and Boras will talk about DLowe, but don’t expect anything to get done.

NOTE: If TE signs Tek ($9m) and Pedro ($12m), that leaves only $9 million left for another pitcher, a catcher, a shortstop and all the rest.

3. Shortstop. RS9 would like to see OC back in the Fens next season, but it might take 3 years/$25 million. That will probably be too much for TE to spend, especially with a willing suitor in the Mets/Mineya in pursuit. We expect another FA to be signed for a year or two. With Hanley Ramirez and Dustin Pedrioa in the system and moving up quickly, a longer contract to OC may become an impediment in ’07/’08, unless…..

4. Second Base. A move here to make due in the short-term would open up a spot for HRam in 2006 at second. Bellhorn is due a healthy raise from is $475k paycheck this season…maybe he would take $2m for ’05. Another thought is to play Bill Mueller at 2nd (which he has done), thus opening a spot for Kevin Youkilis. This would save J$H some cash and move in a young player into the lineup, for the first time in ages.

5. Parting is such sweet sorrow. I anticipate that we will be saying good-bye to: Doug Mirabelli, Pokey Reese, Ramiro Mendoza, Scott Williamson, and Curtis Leskanic. Mike Myers may return in the pen as a serviceable second lefty. Dave McCarty will either suit up as a Sox utility player/pitcher or move into the front office. Rumor has it that Adam Hyzdu may go to Japan, so the search will be on for an inexpensive backup outfielder, hence the expected arbitration offering to Dave Roberts.

Recap: Expect the Unexpected.

TE is going to have to get creative to stay within the budget and put together a team that can defend the World Championship. We have learned that TE is capable of woo-ing FAs (Schilling, Foulke) at reasonable $, can he keep some of the guys (‘Tek, Pedro, OC) that brought the trophy to Fenway? Or will we see another bold move with Manny (waivers/trade)?

RS9 Definitions & Calendar

Here is an updated list of abbreviation/nicknames we will use here at Red Sox Nine:

BBD — Boston Dirt Dogs (great site)

DLowe — Derek Lowe

HRam — Hanley Ramirez

J$H — owner/bank John Henry

LL — Larry Lucchino

NYH — the New York Hankees (the Evil Empire)

OC — Orlando Cabrera

RS9 — Red Sox Nine (this blog/administrator profile)

TE – Theo Epstein

WWTD — What Will Theo Do?

Features Calendar:

‘Today’s Pair of Sox-istics’ (every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday) – new thoughts/ideas/nuggets of information from RS9

‘WWTD’ (every Thursday) – a look at the rumor mill and what Theo might do next.

‘State of the Red Sox Nine’ (end of the month) – RS9 looks at the current state of affairs of the Red Sox Nine, standings, Hot Stove, prospects, free agents, and much, much more.