’08 Games 16-17: Back in the Bronx

The Sox return to the Bronx, and I think that the games are still be played. No but seriously – 634 pitches thrown, 7 hours and 28 minutes of game time, 36 runs scored. All that for a split. Yikes.

A slightly more TQR look at the word shows 3 disastrous starting pitching performances and 1 QS by Josh Beckett in game 2, his 2nd consecutive QS. On Thursday night, Beckett effectively shut down the NYY lineup that scored 17 runs in the 9 innings pitched by Sox pitchers not named Josh.

Thursday night was another story all together. Buchholz gave up two HRs in the first, got through the second and third efficiently, and then allowed 4 hits and a walk in the fourth before giving way to Julian Tavarez. He threw 85 pitches, 53 for strikes, and gave up 7 earned runs while getting only 11 NYY out. This was the shortest outing by any Sox starter so far in 2008. All this on a night when Wang went out and struggled – 8 earned runs in 4 innings.

Here’s the QS Bottom-Line:

Game 16	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	PC-ST	ERA
CB #61	4.1	5	4	4	5	3	0	97-55	5.31

Game 17	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	PC-ST	ERA
JB #19	6.0	7	2	2	4	4	0	106-66	3.18

The End Result:
The Sox and NYY have now played 5 times, Sox lead the series 3-2. They have earned 3 QS, to only 1 for the NYY, the complete game by Wang in game 1.

Red Sox Record:	10-7
Total Quality Starts:	8
Record in QS games:	6-2

A Look Ahead:

Back to the Fens for 4 games against the Texas Rangers. Dice-K starts the series off on Friday night. The Rangers come into Boston with a 7-9 record and 9 QS. That’s one more than the Sox in one fewer games. Very interesting.

’08 Game 10: Sox score dozen to beat Tigers

In my post after Game 9, I mentioned that the Sox needed a QS from Tim Wakefield, hoping that an easy night on the bullpen would help setup the team for the series against NYY. Well, not quite. Wake tossed 5 innings, allowing only 2 runs (1 earned), before passing the last 4 innings off to the ‘pen. Delcarmen and Okajima got the Sox through the 6th and 7th, but Tavarez, making a rare appearance in the 8th inning, allowed the Tigers to close the lead to 8-6 before Papelbon got a four-out save. Whew. Four pitchers, four innings, not exactly what I had in mind.

Here’s the QS Bottom-Line:

Game 10	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	PC-ST	ERA
TW #49	5.0	3	2	1	5	5	0	108-61	3.27

The End Result:
Not an awful start by Wakefield, he was wild though, allowing 5 walks in 5 IP. If this Tigers team had found its stride yet, that would have been the recipe for disaster. Fortunately the bats were on tonight and the bullpen, for the most part, did its job.

Red Sox Record:	5-5
Total Quality Starts:	4
Record in QS games:	3-1

A Look Ahead:

NYY. Boston. Rounds 1-3 of 18.

2007 – That’s a wrap!

The Red Sox finished the season with the AL’s best record at 96-66. The starters were big in the last week of the season, with 3 quality starts in 6 games, all wins. The Sox were only 1-2 in the other 3 games. Schilling, Dice-K, and Wake all hurled QS in their last start.

A final team look:

84 Quality Starts – 61 wins and 23 losses (.726 winning %)

78 non-quality starts – 35 wins and 43 losses (.449)

The longest quality start streak was 8 games. The rotation has 42 QS in the first 81 games, and 42 in the 2nd half.

Nine starters took the hill for the Sox. Here’s the quality start look at them.

1. Dice K – starting with him as he led the staff in IP and games started (32). Team was 10-8 in his 18 QS, 7-7 in non-QS games. QS % = 56 %
2. Wakefield – 31 starts by the knuckleballer, 15 QS. Team was 12-3 in the quality starts by Wakefield, 7-9 in non-QS games. QS % = 48%
3. Beckett – potential Cy Young season by the 26-year-old Texan. 30 starts and 20 wins. He had a team leading 20 QS, going 17-3. Sox were 4-6 in his non-QS games. QS % = 67%
4. Schilling – missed some time during the season, but still had 24 starts, including 14 QS. Sox won 9 out of those 14. Team was 4-6 in his non-QS games. QS % = 58%
5. Tavarez – fifth starter for most of the season had many tough matchups this year. Had 23 total starts, tossed 7 QS. Team was 5-2 in those games, and 5-11 in non-QS games. QS % = 30%
6. Lester – his comeback season started later than many expected at the big league level. Had 11 starts, 5 quality. Sox 4-1 in those starts, and 5-1 in his other (non-QS) starts. QS % = 45%
7. Gabbard – traded to Texas at the trading deadline. Had 7 starts with the Sox, 3 QS. Sox were 2-1 in the QS, 3-1 in the non-QS games. QS % = 43 %
8. Buchholz -Sox phenom provided a spark with his Labor Day weekend no-hitter against the Orioles. Had 3 starts for the Sox in 2007, 2 QS, both won by the Sox. Sox lost his only non-QS. QS % = 67%
9. Hansack – had only 1 start in 2007 with the Sox, and struggled. 1 non-QS – a loss. QS % = 0

What stands out to me?

• The Sox played well with Lester, Gabbard, and Buchholz on the mound. They had a combined 21 starts (10 QS; QS % = 48%) and went 16-5 in those games (8-2 in QS). This means the Sox went 8-3 in non-quality starts by the young Sox hurlers. Compared this to the other 67 non-QS y the rest of the staff and a 27-40 in those games. This should not be taken that the Sox play harder or better for the younger guys than the ‘aces’ of the team. Many factors could apply – better matchups, team health, dumb luck. Just thought it was interesting.
• Sox finished 8th in the majors and 6th in the AL in QS with their 84 total QS. Coming in first was potential ALCS opponent, the Cleveland Indians, with 94, followed by the Blue Jays at 91. The Sox ALDS opponent, Anaheim, was tied for 3rd in the bigs with 90 with San Diego.
• Playoff team with the fewest QS – Phillies (tied – 19th overall) with 74
• AL playoff team with the fewest QS -NYY (17th overall) with 77.

Here is a 30,000 foot view of how the division series should go based on team QS.

• Cleveland (94 QS) over NYY (77)
• Anaheim (90 QS) over Boston (84)
• Arizona (84) over Chicago (81)
• Colorado (79) over Phillies (74)

Up next – predicting the playoffs based on QS % by pitching matchups!

Post-Trading Deadline

So the Sox are still in first place, seven games ahead of the hated NYY, as they head from Seattle to Anaheim. Anaheim, by the way, is near Los Angeles, in California, and is home of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Just wanted to get that clear.

Many thanks to Kason Gabbard, gone on Trade Day to the Rangers, for a good set of starts for the Sox. In 7 2007 starts, Kason had 3 Quality starts (2-1) and the Sox went 5-2 in his starts. Hopefully, he can continue to have success in Texas.

Here is the Sox Quality Start update (thru August 5)

Red Sox Record: 68-43 .613 (1st AL East)
Quality Starts: 57 (51% of all starts)
QS Record: 43-14, .754

Non Quality Start Record: 25-29, .463

Matsuzaka leads the team with 15 quality starts in his 23 starts, but is only 9-6 in those starts.  That is with 4.6 runs of support on average. Josh Beckett is 2nd with 14 quality starts, and is 12-2 in these starts, with 6.2 runs of support by the offense. That is an extra run and a half per start.

The 3 non-original rotation starters (Hansack, Gabbard, and Lester) have combined for 11 starts and a 4.31 ERA with 4 quality starts. The Sox are 7-4 in their starts, and have won 3 of the 4 quality starts.

By contrast, the Original Five (Schilling, Beckett, Dice-K, Wake, Tavarez) now have 100 starts, a 4.14 ERA with 53 quality starts. The Sox are 61-39 in their starts and have won40 of the 53 quality start. The longest streak of quality starts this season by the staff is still 8, back in April (4/8 – 4/18).

That is enough for now. Try and get some sleep before 3 more in Anaheim.

Red Sox QS Update – June 13th edition

So, blogging prior to Schilling’s start against the Rockies tonight. Since last checking in, the Sox have played 8 games, 7 on the road, and posted a 4-4 record. In those 8 games, only the first, a 5 2/3 inning outing by Tavarez, was not a quality start. And he had only allowed 3 runs, so if he had been allowed to get one more out, the streak would be at 8 QS in a row. As it stands, it is at 7. Impressive after a poor stretch, described in the previous post.

So, now thru June 12th:

Start record thru 63 games (thru June 12th).
Red Sox Record: 41-22 .651 (1st AL East)
Quality Starts: 34 (54% of all starts)
QS Record: 25-9, .735

Non Quality Start Record: 16-13, .552

Red Sox Quality Start update

It is the day after A-Rod got the best of Papelbon in the top of the ninth, and for the first time in two weeks, I have some free time to update the Sox QS stats. Here goes – for the season:

Start record thru 55 games (thru June 3rd).
Red Sox Record: 37-18 .673 (1st AL East)
Quality Starts: 27 (49% of all starts)
QS Record: 21-6, .778

Non Quality Start Record: 16-12, .571

Since Hansack made the first start by any pitcher not in the Opening Day Rotation (Schill, Beckett, Dice-K, Wake, and Tavarez) in the second game of the Saturday doubleheader against the Braves on May 19th, the Sox rotation has not been very good. The team record in those games (including the Hansack start) is 8-6.

In those 14 games, only 2 have been Quality Starts, back to back efforts by Schilling and Beckett against the Indians. In 78 innings pitched by the seven starters, the aforementioned Original 5, Hansack, and Kason Gabbard, the combined starter ERA is 6.46 and the WHIP is over 2.00. The starter ERA has risen from 3.57 to 4.23 in just 14 games. The vaunted starting staff has been less than stellar since the first missed Beckett start. Fortunately for the club, the bullpen and some timely hitting, most notably by Youkilis, Pedroia, and Lowell, have kept the Sox above .500 during the starters slump. It will be interesting to see how and if the Original 5 can get back to their early season success and notch some QS on the road trip out West and against the National League.