At the All-Star Break

Sorry about the lack of daily coverage lately. Life has been a little hectic and has thrown some surprises my way recently. The least significant of these surprises is the galactic failure of my television to function. That makes watching games a little tricky. Any how – here is how the Sox look at the All-Star break.

The Sox are 57-40 overall, in 1st place in the AL East by a half game over the Rays, courtesy of last night’s win over the Orioles. On the hill, the starting pitching has done well, posting 53 QS and winning 35 of them. The Sox are 22-22 in games in which a starter does not throw a quality start.

Opponents have hurled 42 QS against the Sox, going 26-16 in these starts. If you do the math, that means the Sox are 41-14 when the opponent’s starting pitcher does not go quality. That right there, my friend is some statistical information for you. Looking a little deeper, when the Sox and their opposition each have starters who go quality, the Sox have struggled, going only 12-16. When the Sox have a QS and their foes do not, they are 23-2! When neither starter has a quality start, the Sox are 18-12.

Lesson here: when the Sox get some quality, and the opponents don’t, the Sox win. If neither gets quality, the Sox do pretty well.

Mid-season individual performances

Beckett 17 GS – 11 QS
Buchholz 9 – 3
Colon 6 -2
Lester 20 – 11
Masterson 9 – 5
Matsuzaka 16 – 7
Pauley 1 – 0
Wakefield 19 – 14

Beckett, Lester and Wakefield have performed well, all with over 50% of their starts being QS. Wake is among the league leaders in the category. Dice-K has a great record, and the Sox are 13-3 in his 16 starts, but only 7 QS to his credit. I worry about him burning out in the fall because of too many pitches and too many hard innings. Masterson has been a surprise, 5 QS in 9 starts and has been a boost to the club. Colon has been adequate (2 QS in 6 starts). Clay Buchholz has also been somewhat of a disappointment. All the talent in the world, we keep hearing, but he has not had enough quality starts to really show us that he has it figured out yet.

’08 Game 48: Another Masterson Performance

Rookie Justin Masterson walked off the Fenway mound during the seventh inning, leading 2-0, and guaranteed that his performance would make it to the quality start column. Two times out in the bigs, two quality starts for the big sinkerballer. His stuff was good last night, better to righties than lefties. He did allow only 3 hits in his 6 1/3 innings of work, which means his two-start total is 5 hits allowed in 13 1/3 IP. Pretty good start to a career.

Here’s the QS Bottom-Line:

Game 48	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	PC-ST	ERA
JM#63	6.1	3	1	1	3	5	0	91-55	1.46

The End Result:
Two games against the Royals and only 1 run allowed in total, and only 5 hits. Masterson does get sent back to the minors, but now he will be in Pawtucket, as he moves a little bit closer to The Show. I personally am looking forward to adding Masterson to the rotation in the next year or so. His stuff is in such contrast to the other Sox starters, and I’d like the team to be able to continue to mix it up on the opposition during a seris.

Red Sox Record:	29-19
Total Quality Starts:	25
Record in QS games:	17-8

KC starter Gil Meche also gave his team a quality start (7 IP, 2 ER). In 14 of the Red Sox games so far this season, both starters have had quality starts, and the Sox are 7-7 in those games. Opposing pitchers have only made 19 quality starts against the Sox to date (40% of games). Opposing teams are 3-2 when their pitcher throws a QS and the Sox start does not and are 7-7 when both do (overall: 10-9).

A Look Ahead:

I will be at Fenway tonight, enjoying the season debut of former Cy Young winner, Bartolo Colon, he who is rotund. This will be Colon’s regular season Red Sox debut as well. If Colon can give the Sox some quality starts, that would be outstanding. Buchholz is on the DL for at least another week. Colon, right now, has a chance to stake a claim to a rotation spot. So, in addition to there being a lot of him to see, we could see a lot of Bartolo.

’08 Game 47: I think this is a quality start!

Nine Innings Pitched. No runs. Two walks. Nine Strikeouts. AND No HITS!

JL#31 pitches a no-no at the Fens. And the rumor is true, I did get offered a ticket to the game. No, I was not there. Long story.

Lester threw first strikes to 20 of 29 hitters. He fanned eight batters overall, including seven over the last five innings. He threw a career-high 130 pitches. It was his first career complete game.

To date, I thought JL31′s best performance was in an eight inning, one-hitter in Game 28 of this season in a duel with Doc Halladay. Obviously, this moves to the top of the chart. Including that start on April 29th, Jon’s last five outings have been very good. He is 2-0, with 34 1/3 innings pitched, with a 1.57 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP, and only 1 home run. Four of the five outings have been quality starts and during the span, he has lowered his ERA two whole runs (from 5.40 to 3.41). The no-hitter is the high point of what has been a very good stretch by the lefty.

Here’s the QS Bottom-Line:

Game 47	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	PC-ST	ERA
JL #31	9.0	0	0	0	2	9	0	130-86	3.41

from multimedia.boston.co posted with vodpod

The End Result:
No-no for Lester! Anyone who knows me knows that JL is my guy – he and Lowell are the only two Sox jerseys I own. We have the cancer-survivor connection going. I cried the day he was diagnosis, I cried again the day he came back, I cried when he won the 4th game of the World Series. And I cried last night. To top it off, I cried this morning watch the replay of the game. That is about all I can say about how I feel about the guy.

Red Sox Record:	28-19
Total Quality Starts:	24
Record in QS games:	16-8

A Look Ahead:

Justin Masterson takes the Fenway mound for the second time tonight against the Royals. Masterson, in his MLB debut in April, faced the Halos and was impressive over 5 innings, allowing only 2 hits. Tomorrow night, with me in attendance, Bartolo Colon, he who is rotund, will take the bump in his season and Sox debut.

’08 Games 44, 45, and 46: A Sweep of the Brew Crew

The weekend return of an old American League foe to Fenway was good for the Sox. The Brewers got swept out of town by the Sox, thanks in most part to a lineup that beat up Brewers pitching for 23 runs in the 3 game set. Only DiceK in Game 1 of the Saturday twinbill was able to hit the quality start barrier. Wakefield feel short on innings, and Beckett decided it was ‘all-or-nothing’ day on Sunday, giving up 6 runs in most part from 4 dingers and whiffing 9 batters over 7 innings. So what did we learn – more of the same from DiceK, Wakefield continues to be adequate most times out, and Beckett is having some struggles (9 HR allowed in 54 innings pitched over 8 starts in 2008). Time to be concerned yet? No, but lately he is looking more like 2006 Beckett than 2007 Beckett.

Here’s the QS Bottom-Line:

Game 44	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	PC-ST	ERA
DM #18	6.7	7	2	0	2	6	1	103-66	2.15

Game 45	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	PC-ST	ERA
TW #49	5.1	6	3	3	3	5	1	10/-67	4.33

Game 46	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	PC-ST	ERA
JB #19	7.0	6	6	6	1	9	4	107-75	4.67

The End Result:

The Sox are done with inter-league play for a little while now and are back in a virtual tie at the top of the division with the Rays. While it is nice to see the bats going again, and hopefully that will continue, the starting pitching has become inconsistent again (only 4 quality starts in the last 10 games).

Red Sox Record:	27-19
Total Quality Starts:	23
Record in QS games:	15-8

A Look Ahead:

Jon Lester, Justin Masterson, and Bartolo Colon are scheduled for the Sox as the Kansas City Royals come to Boston for their annual visit. Lester leads the team in starts, and is tied with DiceK and Wakefield in quality starts (5). Masterson will make his second start and Colon his first start of the season for the Sox, due to Buchholz’ injury and the Friday rainout. We’ll see if the sputtering Royals can get to the Sox staff or if the quality start train can get rolling again.

’08 Game 29: Another Walk-off Win

I forgot to mention in yesterday’s post that JL #31′s quality start was the fifth in five games for the Sox. Finally, some consistency comes to the rotation at the end of April. Dice-K upped the streak to 6 and helped the Sox finish the month of April with a 16-8 record. Dice-K, stratched from his last start because of the flu, looked strong in this one. He tossed seven innings, giving up only 2 hits and 2 walks, and no runs. This last number was pretty important, as again the Sox offense sputtered.

Game 29	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	PC-ST	ERA
DM #18	7.0	2	0	0	2	4	0	111-69	2.52

The End Result:
Quality start for Dice-K, and one for McGowan of the Jays as well. This is the 13th quality start thrown by an opposing pitcher this year, and the 5th in the last 6 games. The Sox bats are not lengthening at bats, being patient, and getting starters out of games early. That has been the formula, and they are just not executing in the batters box lately. The saving grace for the Sox has been the starters in the last turn of the rotation. Masterson, Wakefield, Buchholz, Beckett, Lester, and Dice-K have each hit the quality start barrier in the past week.

Red Sox Record:	17-12
Total Quality Starts:	16
Record in QS games:	10-6

A Look Ahead:

The Sox go for the sweep with Wakefield on the bump tonight. Can Wakefield get the QS streak to 7? Can the Sox bats solve Aj Burnett? Good questions. First game of May – tonight at Fenway, 7:05 PM first pitch.

’08 Game 24: Masterson Debuts Well, Sox Still Lose

The surprise of surprises came today in a last minute ticket offer to my wife and we got to see the major league debut of young Justin Masterson. The sinkerballer pitched well, going six innings and giving up only 1 earned run, a homer by Mike Napoli in the fifth. He allowed only 2 hits and walked 4. A solid outing for a rookie, we’ll give him a B+.

Interesting personal fact – the last time a Sox starter made his big league debut at Fenway was Clay Buchholz last August. This start was also against the LAA. And my wife and I were also in attendance. Pretty cool.

The bullpen gets an F! The rotation produces a quality start, and the bullpen just squandered it away. Four relievers allowed 6 runs in 3 innings. Yikes. That was ugly. The Sox lost, even though a majestic bomb by Big Papi in the ninth did make the final score interesting, 7-5 Halos. And as we feared, the Sox lose their first home series of the season.

Here’s the QS Bottom-Line:

Game 24	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	PC-ST	ERA
JM#63	6.0	2	1	1	4	4	1	95-58	1.50

The End Result:
Sox lose for the second night in a row and now have to head to the Trop to face the Devil Rays. They have not lost two straight games since Toronto on April 5 and 6, 17 games ago. Short losing streaks certainly are a good sign. During those 17 games, the Sox starters produced 7 quality starts, not an outstanding number. You would have to say it has been the offense carrying the load during this stretch of 12-5 baseball, scoring 105 runs (6.2 per game).

Red Sox Record:	15-9
Total Quality Starts:	10
Record in QS games:	8-3

A Look Ahead:

Down in the Trop, Matt Garza will face Wake in the opener, followed by Buchholz v. Edwin Jackson. Not 100% sure who will start on Sunday for the Sox, it could be Beckett, and he would face James Shields. Sox can increase their lead in the East with a series win on the road.