First update of 2011

Hello reader. My apologies for not posting yet this season. Just before Opening Day, I was diagnosed with Hodgkin’s Lymphoma for the second time in my life. I have a good prognosis and have already had 2 of the 12 planned chemotherapy treatments.  I am grateful to my friends and family for all their love and support. If you’d like to learn more about my diagnosis and treatment, you can on my cancer blog.

Now – some baseball.

The 1920 World Champion Cleveland Indians Team Photo (Image via Wikipedia)

We are a little more than 6 weeks into the 2011 season and the surprise team is the Cleveland Indians. Is it any wonder that their starting pitchers are tied for the major league lead (with Philly) in quality starts at 26. Both the Tribe (34 games) and the Fightin’ Phils (35 games) have the best records in their respective leagues. The Indians have won 20 out of these quality starts.

BOOM: Who has helped lead the Tribe?

Justin Masterson and Josh Tomlin each have reached the QS standard in all of their 7 starts. Fausto Carmona has 6 in 8 starts. That’s 20 QS from your top 3 starters. Add in another pair from highly touted rookie Alex White in his first 2 big league starts. Overall, great start from the Indians and we’ll keep an eye on them as the season goes forward.

BUST: Sox and Cubs

My big disappointment so far, and I am possibly biased, is the Red Sox. Only Jon Lester‘s name can be found among the top 20 in Quality Startswith his 6 QS in 8 starts. The Sox are 4-2 in his quality starts. In total, the club has only 16 quality starts in 36 games. The Sox have won 12 of the 16 quality starts. The Red Sox have never been above .500 this year and are currently 17-19, holding 3rd place in the AL East.

At the bottom of the league standings for quality starts is the Chicago Cubs with only 12 in 34 games. They trail 5 teams (Red Sox, Twins, Astros, Blue Jays, Mets) by 4 QS. Carlos Zambrano and Matt Garza each have 4 to lead the way. The Cubbies are 4 games under .500 and in 4th place in the NL Central.

Justin Verlander, Tiger Pitcher (Image via Wikipedia)

FINAL THOUGHT: No-No Again

Justin Verlander leads the league at this point with 8 quality starts in 8 games, including the most notable, his no-hitter last week. Unfortunately, the Tigers have not supported him well in his starts, and they are only 3-5 when Verlander takes the mound. In the 5 losses, they have scored only 9 runs. Despite this, the Tigers are 19-18 and in 2nd place in the Central.

Have a quality day!

Related articles

• Justin Verlander No-Hitter: Where Does He Rank Among the 10 Best Pitchers in MLB (bleacherreport.com)
• Justin Verlander tosses second career no-hitter (aol.sportingnews.com)

Sox Lose Battle of Starters to Rays

The Sox only received 2 quality starts in the 2008 ALCS. Game 1′s gem from DiceK and Lester’s valiant effort in Game 7. No quality in between. Interestingly, the Rays also got quality starts in these 2 games and the teams split the two games. 

The Rays starters also tossed quality starts in games 3 (Garza), 4 (Sonnenstine), and 5 (Kazmir) and went 2-1 in those games, and would have won all three if not for some fortutious Red Sox bounces in the 2nd largest comeback in a playoff game ever. 

More of the post-mortem on the 2008 Red Sox will come soon.

Game 143: Lester Owns Rays

Jon Lester added to his resume another outstanding, dominant performance last night at the Fens, going 7 2/3 innings and allowing no Rays to score. The 3-0 win by the Sox move them to only a half game out in the AL East race. Lester lowered his ERA to 3.23 while securing his 18th quality start of the season and 5th in 6 games. According to this morning’s Boston Globe, Lester has started a league-high 7 games that have ended in shutouts of the opponent. In reference to Lester’s ownership of the Rays, he is undefeated in 7 starts, including 3-0 and a 0.90 ERA this season.

Here’s the QS Bottom-Line:

Game 143	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	PC-ST	ERA
JL #31	7.2	6	0	0	3	9	0	119-74	3.23

The End Result:
When Lester needed it, he was able to get strikeouts or a groundball. He controlled Rocco Baldelli, whiffing him 3 times. The end result is that Lester has again stepped up when the Sox needed him too, contributing an ‘ace-like’ effort to propel them within sniffing distance of the top of the division.

Red Sox Record:	85-58
Total Quality Starts:	74
Record in QS games:

Tampa starter Edwin Jackson also gave his team a quality start (7 IP, 3 ER), the first by a Ray pitcher at Fenway in 7 tries this year. So the Sox improve in their head-to-head quality start record against the Rays (now 3-1).

A Look Ahead:

Game 2 – Scott Kazmir (11 QS, 48%) v. DiceK (13 QS, 52%). Advantage: Sox

And down the stretch we come

Tonight will be the 456th consecutive regular season game the Red Sox have sold out, breaking the previous record of 455 held by the Cleveland Indians. I was at #455, when the Sox bunted their way to victory over the O’s. Here is the Quality Start Report look at where we are with only 20 games left in the season.

The Sox v. Rays series starts tonight. Sox trail by only 1.5 games in the AL East. Interesting, the teams are tied with 73 quality starts on the season to date (note: Rays have played one fewer game).

• Game 1 – Edwin Jackson (13 QS, 48% of starts) v. Jon Lester (17 QS, 59%). Advantage: Sox
• Game 2 – Scott Kazmir (11 QS, 48%) v. DiceK (13 QS, 52%). Advantage: Sox
• Game 3- Andy Sonnestine (10 QS, 36%) v. Josh Beckett (14 QS, 54%). Advantage: Sox

Jon Lester faces Edwin Jackson at the start of the critical series at Fenway tonight!

The winner of this series will be the one that gets the best starting pitching. Coming in, the Red Sox look to have the advantage and the momentum. The Sox are fortunate to miss James Shields, who has 20 quality starts (69%), the best number on both staffs.

Head-to-head in 2008, the Sox and Rays have split 12 games, with the home team winning every single game. The Sox have had 7 quality starts in 12 games, the Rays only 4. The Rays have won each game with a quality start, including beating the Sox 3 times when the Sox’ starter has gotten a quality start. The Rays have not gotten a single quality start in six games at Fenway (3 by the Sox).

In addition to this series at Fenway, the Sox and Rays will face off next week for 3 more at the Trop. Here is a look at the remaining games on the schedule for each team:

• Rays (21): home – Bos (3), Min (4). away – Bos (3), NYY (3), Bal (4), Det (4)
• Sox (20): home – Rays (3), Tor (4), Cle (4), NYY (3). away – Rays (3), Tor (3)

Analysis – The Sox have struggled with at the Trop (0-6) and against Toronto (4-7) all season long. So, this combination of 10 games, half of those remaining, is ominous. The Rays have struggled at Fenway (0-6) and against the NYY (6-9), but have dominated the Orioles (11-3) and Detroit (3-0). While past performance may not be indicative of future results, it would seem that the Rays have a more favorable schedule than the Sox as both clubs are battling it out for the AL East crown. The advantage goes to either team that gets to 4 wins in the last 6 between the 2 clubs.

Personally, I am looking forward to tonight at the Fens with personal favorite Lester taking the ball for the Sox and . Both Lester and the Rays starter Edwin Jackson have 4 quality starts in his last 5 starts.

At the All-Star Break

Sorry about the lack of daily coverage lately. Life has been a little hectic and has thrown some surprises my way recently. The least significant of these surprises is the galactic failure of my television to function. That makes watching games a little tricky. Any how – here is how the Sox look at the All-Star break.

The Sox are 57-40 overall, in 1st place in the AL East by a half game over the Rays, courtesy of last night’s win over the Orioles. On the hill, the starting pitching has done well, posting 53 QS and winning 35 of them. The Sox are 22-22 in games in which a starter does not throw a quality start.

Opponents have hurled 42 QS against the Sox, going 26-16 in these starts. If you do the math, that means the Sox are 41-14 when the opponent’s starting pitcher does not go quality. That right there, my friend is some statistical information for you. Looking a little deeper, when the Sox and their opposition each have starters who go quality, the Sox have struggled, going only 12-16. When the Sox have a QS and their foes do not, they are 23-2! When neither starter has a quality start, the Sox are 18-12.

Lesson here: when the Sox get some quality, and the opponents don’t, the Sox win. If neither gets quality, the Sox do pretty well.

Mid-season individual performances

Beckett 17 GS – 11 QS
Buchholz 9 – 3
Colon 6 -2
Lester 20 – 11
Masterson 9 – 5
Matsuzaka 16 – 7
Pauley 1 – 0
Wakefield 19 – 14

Beckett, Lester and Wakefield have performed well, all with over 50% of their starts being QS. Wake is among the league leaders in the category. Dice-K has a great record, and the Sox are 13-3 in his 16 starts, but only 7 QS to his credit. I worry about him burning out in the fall because of too many pitches and too many hard innings. Masterson has been a surprise, 5 QS in 9 starts and has been a boost to the club. Colon has been adequate (2 QS in 6 starts). Clay Buchholz has also been somewhat of a disappointment. All the talent in the world, we keep hearing, but he has not had enough quality starts to really show us that he has it figured out yet.

Thru 48 games – A comparison

The ’08 Sox are behind the ’07 Sox, record-wise, after the first four dozen games.

Last year’s club had a 33-15 record, with 25 quality starts pitched at this point. The team was 19-6 when the starter earned a QS. Starter’s ERA was a collective 3.93 in 297 2/3 innings pitched. The club had an impressive 11 game lead over the second place Blue Jays (22-26) after 48 games last year.

The ’08 team is 29-19, with 25 quality starts, with a 17-8 record in those games. The starter’s have pitched fewer innings (287 1/3 IP) and have a slightly lower ERA (3.92). The Sox have a 1 game lead over Tampa at this point.

QUALITY START REPORT ANALYSIS

REASON #1: OFFENSE

The offense in 2007 had a slightly better start, scoring 13 more runs over the first 48 games. Not a huge difference. So what, do I hypothesize, makes up for the 4 game difference in record? The bullpen and defense have both been down a bit over 2007. Is that enough for a four game difference? Well, maybe. Here is a little bit more detail on “run prevention”. In 2007, through 48 games, the Sox had allowed only 183 runs, 130 were earned runs allowed by the starters. This year’s club, has allowed 210 runs, 27 more in total, and more than a half a run per game. The starters have allowed 125 earned runs, a smaller total then the ’07 team. So, where are the other runs allowed? The bullpen and errors.

REASON #2: Improved AL EAST (except the NYY)

Another issue is that the division is better. The Sox have been swept on the road by the Rays, Orioles, and Blue Jays already in 2008. That accounts for 8 of the 19 losses right there. The Sox have lost 8 quality starts all season, seven of those losses are in the division. A split in those games, certainly conceivable and possibly even disappointing by 2007 standards, and the ’08 club would be level with the ’07 start. That being said, and thinking back to the games in Toronto, the Trop, and at Camden, what is the one issue that pops into mind? BULLPEN. Followed in a close second by poor run production by the offense, that certainly sputtered against the strong Jays staff at the end of the first road series (yeah, remember, 3 countries) and then again against the improving Rays staff (5 runs in 3 games) at the end of April.

A possible REASON #3: The defense.

I am not convinced of a ‘fatal’ flaw in the defense, as was noted in 2004 by Theo, but it is something that I am going to keep an eye on. Julio Lugo has certainly been the source of most errors by the team, which seems otherwise quite sound defensively. The bullpen has truly been troubling at times, especially shortly after the Japan trip. An improving Craig Hansen, a stable Manny Delcarmen, and a healthy Jonathan Papelbon and Hideki Okajima over the next couple of months will certainly help get the Sox a comfortable AL East lead.