Mike Freeman at CBSSportsline.com thinks “It’s Over“, and I agree.

Ryan Howard hit two home runs to pace the offense in Phillies Game 3 win. Joe Blanton allowed only 2 runs, both on HRs, but made amends by hitting one of his own. (courtesy of mlb.com)

The Phillies are on the verge of their 2nd World Series championship, courtesy of their 4th quality start of this series. Joe Blanton did give up 2 dingers (see previous post), but they were both solo shots, in his 6 innings (2 ER). The bullpen and the offense did the rest. Actually, that is not entire true. Blanton helped his own cause with his first career home run. Blanton is the first pitcher to hit a Fall Classic homer since 1974. That is crazy!

Andy Sonnanstine allowed 3 earned runs, 5 in total, in his 4 innings. A smarter decision by Sonnanstine in the first inning on Ryan Howard’s grounder really could have changed the entire game here. If Sonnanstine goes to second to start a 1-6-3 double play, he would have gotten out of the first inning jam entrirely and perhaps may have settled in after that. Well, ifs and buts.

I expect Cole Hamels to give the Phils 5 quality starts in as many games and finish off the Rays tonight. Get ready for the Phillies to be World Series champs folks.

We are three games into the 2008 World Series, and the Phillies, yes folks, the Phillies, not only lead the series 2 games to 1 but they have also have had some pretty quality performances on the bump from their starters. In each of the 3 games, they have gotten QS.

Game 1: Cole Hamels – 7 IP, 2 ER

Game 2: Brett Myers – 7 IP, 3 ER

Game 3: Jamie Moyer – 6 1/3, 3 ER

The Rays, conversely, have lost their only quality start in the series, which came in game 1 from Scott Kazmir. It should be noted that Shields was a single out away from hurling a quality start in the Ray’s game 2 win.

Game 1: Scott Kazmir – 6 IP, 3 ER

Game 2: James Shields – 5 2/3 IP, 0 ER

Game 3: Matt Garza – 6 IP, 4 ER

Through 3 games, both teams have a 3.12 ERA. Surprisingly, each team has made at least one error in each game (total of 7 combined). And possibly the key to the Phillies success in this series – keeping the ball in the ballpark – they have out-homered the Rays 5-1, that after the Rays hit 6 HRs in the ALDS and another 16 in the ALCS. If the Phils can keep the Rays from going yard, they’ll be sizing up rings pretty soon.

In Game 4 tonight, Andy Sonnanstine will matchup against Joe Blanton.  Blanton faced the Red Sox way back in Japan in game 2 of the season, remember that? During the regular season, Sonnanstine had 13 quality stats (41% of his 32 starts). Blanton had 14 quality starts in his 33 starts (42%), split between the A’s and the Phils. Each has thrown one quality start out of two outings in the post-season. Very even matchup here from the mound.

Can Sonnanstine get his mojo going tonight or does Blanton control the Rays lineup? Stay tuned (if you indeed have already been watching).

The Sox only received 2 quality starts in the 2008 ALCS. Game 1’s gem from DiceK and Lester’s valiant effort in Game 7. No quality in between. Interestingly, the Rays also got quality starts in these 2 games and the teams split the two games. 

The Rays starters also tossed quality starts in games 3 (Garza), 4 (Sonnenstine), and 5 (Kazmir) and went 2-1 in those games, and would have won all three if not for some fortutious Red Sox bounces in the 2nd largest comeback in a playoff game ever. 

More of the post-mortem on the 2008 Red Sox will come soon.

More later – all I can say is ARGH!

Sox starter Diasuke Matsuzaka pitched a typical DiceK game, throwing 102 pitches in 5 innings, walking 4, strikeout 5 and allowing 3 runs. He is now 50-50 in quality starts, 13 quality, 13 non-quality, on the season. He is consistent in his inconsistency. I’ll give him that. He does get through innings with lots of base runners and seems to minimize the damage. He just throws way to many pitches and gets into too many deep counts.  Some how, his ERA is less than 3 for the season despite allowing over 200 baserunners in 151 1/3 innings.

Here’s the QS Bottom-Line:

The End Result:
Two walks and a hit by pitch hurt DiceK in the 3rd, when he allowed 2 runs. He passed off a 3-2 deficit to the bullpen after his 5 innings of work. Despite an 8th inning, go-ahead home run by new guy Jason Bay, the Rays battled back to shock the Sox by scoring 2 in the ninth against Jonathan Papelbon and win the game 5-4.

Tampa starter Scott Kazmir gave his team a quality start (6 IP, 2 ER), the second in a row by a Ray pitcher at Fenway, after failing the first 6 times this season. 7 tries this year. The Rays are now 4-1 against the Sox when their starter gives them a quality start. This series is now even at 1 game each, and the Rays continue to lead the AL East, now by 1.5 games.

A Look Ahead:

Game 3- Andy Sonnestine (10 QS, 36%) v. Josh Beckett (14 QS, 54%). Advantage: Sox

Tonight will be the 456th consecutive regular season game the Red Sox have sold out, breaking the previous record of 455 held by the Cleveland Indians. I was at #455, when the Sox bunted their way to victory over the O’s. Here is the Quality Start Report look at where we are with only 20 games left in the season.

The Sox v. Rays series starts tonight. Sox trail by only 1.5 games in the AL East. Interesting, the teams are tied with 73 quality starts on the season to date (note: Rays have played one fewer game).

• Game 1 – Edwin Jackson (13 QS, 48% of starts) v. Jon Lester (17 QS, 59%). Advantage: Sox
• Game 2 – Scott Kazmir (11 QS, 48%) v. DiceK (13 QS, 52%). Advantage: Sox
• Game 3- Andy Sonnestine (10 QS, 36%) v. Josh Beckett (14 QS, 54%). Advantage: Sox

Jon Lester faces Edwin Jackson at the start of the critical series at Fenway tonight!

The winner of this series will be the one that gets the best starting pitching. Coming in, the Red Sox look to have the advantage and the momentum. The Sox are fortunate to miss James Shields, who has 20 quality starts (69%), the best number on both staffs.

Head-to-head in 2008, the Sox and Rays have split 12 games, with the home team winning every single game. The Sox have had 7 quality starts in 12 games, the Rays only 4. The Rays have won each game with a quality start, including beating the Sox 3 times when the Sox’ starter has gotten a quality start. The Rays have not gotten a single quality start in six games at Fenway (3 by the Sox).

In addition to this series at Fenway, the Sox and Rays will face off next week for 3 more at the Trop. Here is a look at the remaining games on the schedule for each team:

• Rays (21): home – Bos (3), Min (4). away – Bos (3), NYY (3), Bal (4), Det (4)
• Sox (20): home – Rays (3), Tor (4), Cle (4), NYY (3). away – Rays (3), Tor (3)

Analysis – The Sox have struggled with at the Trop (0-6) and against Toronto (4-7) all season long. So, this combination of 10 games, half of those remaining, is ominous. The Rays have struggled at Fenway (0-6) and against the NYY (6-9), but have dominated the Orioles (11-3) and Detroit (3-0). While past performance may not be indicative of future results, it would seem that the Rays have a more favorable schedule than the Sox as both clubs are battling it out for the AL East crown. The advantage goes to either team that gets to 4 wins in the last 6 between the 2 clubs.

Personally, I am looking forward to tonight at the Fens with personal favorite Lester taking the ball for the Sox and . Both Lester and the Rays starter Edwin Jackson have 4 quality starts in his last 5 starts.

Down and out for 2008

While I will always admit that sports-wise, my first love is always baseball. But the past eight years, around this time of year, the Patriots have gotten me pretty revved up.

But because of this: Brady out for season - I will return to my original love, the Red Sox, to lead me through this setback.

It is only appropriate that good-vibes Jon Lester is on the mound tonight to help out the Nation. Let’s go Jon!

We are experiencing technical difficulties (BROKEN TV) and have been on vacation. I will catch up on the last month of the season very soon!

Sorry about the lack of daily coverage lately. Life has been a little hectic and has thrown some surprises my way recently. The least significant of these surprises is the galactic failure of my television to function. That makes watching games a little tricky. Any how – here is how the Sox look at the All-Star break.

The Sox are 57-40 overall, in 1st place in the AL East by a half game over the Rays, courtesy of last night’s win over the Orioles. On the hill, the starting pitching has done well, posting 53 QS and winning 35 of them. The Sox are 22-22 in games in which a starter does not throw a quality start.

Opponents have hurled 42 QS against the Sox, going 26-16 in these starts. If you do the math, that means the Sox are 41-14 when the opponent’s starting pitcher does not go quality. That right there, my friend is some statistical information for you. Looking a little deeper, when the Sox and their opposition each have starters who go quality, the Sox have struggled, going only 12-16. When the Sox have a QS and their foes do not, they are 23-2! When neither starter has a quality start, the Sox are 18-12.

Lesson here: when the Sox get some quality, and the opponents don’t, the Sox win. If neither gets quality, the Sox do pretty well.

Mid-season individual performances

Beckett 17 GS – 11 QS
Buchholz 9 – 3
Colon 6 -2
Lester 20 – 11
Masterson 9 – 5
Matsuzaka 16 – 7
Pauley 1 – 0
Wakefield 19 – 14

Beckett, Lester and Wakefield have performed well, all with over 50% of their starts being QS. Wake is among the league leaders in the category. Dice-K has a great record, and the Sox are 13-3 in his 16 starts, but only 7 QS to his credit. I worry about him burning out in the fall because of too many pitches and too many hard innings. Masterson has been a surprise, 5 QS in 9 starts and has been a boost to the club. Colon has been adequate (2 QS in 6 starts). Clay Buchholz has also been somewhat of a disappointment. All the talent in the world, we keep hearing, but he has not had enough quality starts to really show us that he has it figured out yet.